Since the COVID-19 pandemic, increased prevalence of remote work has created a major shift in US work patterns, with external estimates suggesting that 20–30% of all workers work remotely some or all of the time, up from 4–7% before the pandemic. This study reviews the impact of this shift on workers compensation frequency.
In this study, we assess the “remote-friendliness” of different types of occupations and focus much of our analysis on workers at businesses in what we define as the Combined Office sector of the economy or workers whose payroll is classified in a standard exception code for workers compensation or similar codes, what we define as Special Classes. Almost all remote-friendly workers fall into one or both of these categories. We find evidence that more remote-friendly jobs are associated with lower frequency.
Using NCCI data, we observe a 40% decline in frequency for Combined Office workers in Special Classes from 2019 to 2022, much larger than the overall frequency decline in the same time period. Workers who fall into one of these categories but not both also experienced larger frequency declines than the average observed over this period across all jobs.
These findings hold when using regression analysis to account for more nuanced differences between classes and sectors. We estimate downward effects of remote work on workers compensation frequency, especially for the group of Combined Office workers who are also in Special Classes—the group with the greatest remote work prevalence. We find larger effects of remote work on slip and fall injuries and motor vehicle accidents than for strains and contact injuries.
However, the focus on office workers and exception classes puts an upper bound on the overall impact of remote work on workers compensation frequency. Workers who are either in the Combined Office sector or in a Special Class make up a slight majority of payroll as reported to NCCI, but just one-tenth of the premium. Workers in both groups make up even less: around 20% of payroll but only 2% of premium.
Thus, even the large change in frequency among such workers that we observed only led to a modest change in overall frequency patterns. This may explain why, despite the large shift in the work environment, remote work has had a modest impact on overall WC trends in recent years.
Key Findings
- Remote work has created a major and durable shift in the US work environment since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily in office and clerical work. Currently, about 20–30% of US workers work remotely.
- We estimate that about half of all workers in either an office-based business or a clerical class code have remote-friendly jobs. The share rises to about three-fourths for workers who fall into both categories. Very few workers who fall outside both of these groups have remote-friendly jobs.
- These two categories of workers account for over half of all workers compensation payroll but only 11% of workers compensation premium.
- Remote-friendly work is associated with the observance of significant frequency declines in the last five years. The impact of remote work on overall workers compensation frequency is small because such workers represent a small share of overall premium.
- The prevalence of remote work has been mostly stable since the end of 2021, with a relatively small amount of net return to office since then. However, it is not yet clear whether the workers compensation system has fully adjusted to the potential impacts of remote work.
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