Since the initial shock of the first COVID-19 surge in April 2020 through the third quarter of 2021, the US economy has recovered jobs steadily though at a gradually decreasing rate. The summer Delta surge affected employment recovery only modestly, by our estimate setting back national job growth by less than a month. Economic recovery in the US is likely to continue more as a slog than a snapback, facing the twin headwinds of labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks.
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