“What impact will AI have on jobs?” We hear this question often among workers compensation stakeholders—and while it may seem straightforward, it’s anything but.
As Ethan Mollick, Wharton School professor and one of the most closely followed voices on AI, recently said:
“Nobody knows anything. I spend my time talking to AI labs, famous people, I talk to CEOs all the time, and nobody knows anything. We’re all making this up as we go along. So anyone who’s like, ‘We have the playbook’—they’re lying to you.”
We’re not going to lie to you; we don’t know the exact answer either. We’re economic analysts, not clairvoyants, but we can look at past and present trends to help us prepare for the future.
Currently, economists hold a wide range of opinions on the future of AI. Some believe it will be a great enabler, ushering in a new employment boom. Others advise caution, believing this technology will cause significant displacement and eliminate jobs.
In this brief, we’ll explain why we believe the answer lies somewhere in the middle. We will explore how technology impacts jobs, what AI adoption has looked like so far, and what it could mean for the economy and workers compensation going forward.
Key Themes and Takeaways
- It is still too early to draw conclusions on the impact of AI on employment
- Employment trends in early 2026 appear to be negatively correlated with AI adoption rates, while productivity growth has been elevated
- Higher productivity growth has helped support economic growth and wage growth
Check out the full
Quarterly Economics Briefing to learn more.
Connect with our
Economics Team if you have questions or want to gain additional insights.
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