The US labor market remains strong. In the second quarter of 2023, employment growth held steady and wage growth remained high. However, anxiety persists about a potential looming recession in the coming months.
In this briefing, we examine economic indicators to assess the likelihood and shape of a potential recession. Current economic indicators do not suggest an imminent recession or major slowdown, but drawdowns of household savings could contribute to slowing economic growth by the end of the year. Businesses impactful to workers compensation, including those in the construction and manufacturing sectors and small businesses across economic sectors, are likely to be among those most affected by an economic slowdown or recession.
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