In this report, we look at the Fed’s forecast for the economy in 2024 as well as three alternative scenarios. These four potential outcomes do not in any way represent the full spectrum of possible outcomes for the economy but highlight how broad the range of possible outcomes is. These scenarios also highlight the challenge that faces policymakers at the Fed as they assess the appropriate level of interest rates without knowing which way the economy could be moving.
These scenarios also highlight the broad range of potential outcomes for workers compensation. Continued above-average premium growth, a quick convergence to the pre-pandemic trend, a more serious slowing, or an outright decline are all potential outcomes based on how the economy evolves over the next few years. Additionally, the economy’s impact on frequency trends could intensify or diminish. As incoming data throughout the year sheds light on how things are evolving, we will be analyzing each facet to determine the implications for workers compensation.
Key Themes and Takeaways
- The Federal Reserve’s most recent economic forecasts predict a year of solid growth, a continued strong labor market, and stubborn inflation.
- Despite the strong economy, the Fed may still opt to lower interest rates slowly over time.
- The economy has momentum, but uncertainty remains high and realistic scenarios for the year remain broad. Diverse outcomes for the economy will likely have varied impacts on workers compensation.
Check out the full
Quarterly Economics Briefing to learn more.
You can also access the latest
Labor Market Insights for a monthly overview of key labor market statistics and what it means for workers compensation.
Connect with our
Economics Team if you have questions or want to gain additional insights.
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