The
Quarterly Economics Briefing (QEB) Employment Scenario Tool enables users to explore employment scenarios as discussed in NCCI’s Third Quarter 2020
QEB and take a deeper dive into states and industries of interest. The industries used are NAICS sectors, or aggregations of sectors, as shown in
QEB.
The employment scenarios represent potential alternative outcomes for the size and speed of economic recovery through 2021. Each scenario has an associated potential employment path for all US states and industries. These paths follow the scenarios developed in the Third Quarter 2020
QEB but use more recently available data.
- The
Full Recovery scenario assumes that the pandemic-induced employment gap, including trend growth, is fully recovered by the end of 2021.
- The
Slower Growth scenario assumes that employment will partially recover during 2021 but remain below the pre-pandemic expectation throughout that year.
- The
Second Recession scenario assumes a second downturn early in 2021 and very little employment growth throughout that year.
Scenario employment is depicted in graphical and tabular form. The graph shows changes in employment for each of the three scenarios measured from Fourth Quarter 2019, the last quarter unaffected by the pandemic. The table summarizes the underlying forecast values for private employment in the selected state, region, and/or industry.
Users can also select a customized portfolio of only particular jurisdictions and industries of interest. For any such portfolio, users can download the associated employment scenario forecasts by quarter for their own use.
The QEB Employment Scenario Tool is best viewed in Chrome via a desktop browser.
Tool Guide
The tool displays a graph of employment paths and table of scenario employment in one of two main formats:
-
By Scenario displays total forecasted employment for each of the three employment scenarios in the selected benchmark state or region.
- The orange shading in the
By Scenario graph represents the range between the employment paths in the Full Recovery and Second Recession scenarios.
-
By Industry provides detailed employment paths for each industry, given a choice of
Scenario and
Benchmark.
- The orange shading in the
By Industry graph represents the range between industries with the most and least-favorable employment changes by quarter, for the chosen
Scenario and
Benchmark only.
- Users may toggle between the two views using the option on the upper right of the main section of the tool.
- In either view, the user may hover over any row in the table to view the percent changes in employment for the corresponding scenario/industry represented in the graph.
- Users may change the highlighted
Scenario and
Benchmark using the drop-down boxes:
- The
Change in Employment drop-down box determines which of the three scenarios―Full Recovery, Slower Growth, or Second Recession―is highlighted in the graph and table.
- The
Benchmark determines which jurisdiction’s data (individual states, NCCI states, non-NCCI states, United States) is displayed in the graph and table, designated in the graph by dashed lines.
- Users may select a custom
state-industry portfolio by clicking on any combination of states and industries in the gray right-hand column:
- The aggregated employment values for the custom portfolio will be represented by blue in the graph and the table.
- Once a portfolio is selected, users may click the data download icon to access the actual and forecast employment data underlying the active
By Scenario or
By Industry view.
This article is provided solely as a reference tool to be used for informational purposes only. The information in this article shall not be construed or interpreted as providing legal or any other advice. Use of this article for any purpose other than as set forth herein is strictly prohibited.
