May 15, 2025 (BOCA RATON, FL)—The industry's most respected thought leaders delivered exclusive workers compensation insights and analysis at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI)
Annual Insights Symposium (AIS) 2025 May 12–14 in Orlando, FL. The
AIS Highlights Report is now available.
"Making sense of trends that seem to change just as fast as they appear has been challenging," said NCCI President and CEO Tracy Ryan. "NCCI's continued investment in data—and the real-time tools to monitor it—allows us to shift from reacting to anticipating potential disruptors to the system."
"The workers compensation system continues an era of exceptional performance with strong results and a financially healthy line," said Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, Chief Actuary, NCCI. "And while there are early indications of potential headwinds on the horizon, the industry is positioned well to navigate these challenges."
Here is a recap of insights and quotes from
AIS:
DATA. DRIVEN.
Tracy Ryan, FCAS
President and CEO, NCCI
Key takeaways
- Data drives the workers compensation system—to improve safety, to improve injured worker outcomes, and to deliver richer insights.
- Leveraging strong data is more important than ever as the workers compensation system faces increasing complexity, through:
- Economic uncertainty,
- Shifting workforce dynamics, and
- Advances in technology, such as artificial intelligence.
- Employers are using data-driven insights to make workplaces safer, including automating repetitive tasks, leveraging robots for dangerous and high-risk jobs, and using wearables to predict and prevent accidents before they happen. The results are powerful: claim frequency has been falling for over 30 years and investments to make workplaces safer aren’t slowing down.
- NCCI's continued investment in data—and the real-time tools to monitor it—allows us to shift from reacting to anticipating potential disruptors to the system.
- The WC industry needs to be thinking today about the data it will need in 2035. The choices we make now will shape our ability to generate meaningful insights and make informed decisions for the decade ahead.
Quote:
"Workers compensation is a product where compassion and analytics work hand-in-hand—protecting and caring for employees, while also leveraging data to make the entire system more effective and sustainable."
State of the Line Report
Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA
Chief Actuary, NCCI
Key takeaways
- Workers compensation net written premium decreased 3% in 2024.
- The Calendar Year 2024 combined ratio for workers compensation is 86%, a sign of underwriting profitability for the system.
- Workers compensation's Accident Year 2024 combined ratio is 99% with prior years continuing to experience downward reserve development.
- NCCI estimates a redundant industry reserve position of $16B.
- Lost-time claim frequency declined by 5% in 2024, a faster pace of decline than the long-term average decline.
- Severity grew in 2024 with increases of 6% for medical claim severity and 6% for indemnity claim severity.
Quote:
"The workers compensation system continues an era of exceptional performance with strong results and a financially healthy line. And while there are early indications of potential headwinds on the horizon, the industry is positioned well to navigate these challenges."
New this year: State of the Line: At a Glance—It's a concise, one-page summary that brings together key metrics and insights—all in one place.
Industry-Specific Trends Uncovered
Sandra Kipust, FCAS, MAAA
Senior Practice Leader and Actuary, NCCI
Key takeaways
- While overall claim frequency has been in a decades-long decline, at an industry level, trends can be very different.
- The shift to remote work in 2020 led to a decline in claim frequency among office workers and remains low for those who have continued to work remotely.
- Within the Leisure & Hospitality industry, claim frequency for restaurants declined in 2022 and 2023, while frequency for other subsectors has remained flat.
- Despite the pandemic disruption, health care claim frequency (excluding COVID-19 claims) generally declined from 2015 to 2023, driven by a nearly 30% reduction in strain-related injuries.
- Claim frequency in private education has risen, primarily driven by "struck or injured by" injuries, potentially resulting from workplace violence in the industry.
Quote:
"While the overall frequency of workers compensation claims continues its long-term decline, industry-specific patterns present a varied picture. Workers and workplaces are safer today than ever yet understanding the nuances at an industry level can uncover both opportunities and challenges within the system."
The State of the Economy and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
Stephen Cooper
Executive Director and Senior Economist, NCCI
Key takeaways
Growth:
- Economic uncertainty is elevated, recession probabilities are up.
- Consumer spending is the key data point to watch.
Employment:
- The labor market is a lagging indicator for the economy.
- The labor market is at risk near-term (recession) and long-term (labor supply).
Inflation:
- Tariffs will directly impact a small portion of workers compensation prices.
- Direct medical price impact is likely to be manageable.
Interest Rates:
- Tariffs present a monetary policy challenge for the Fed’s dual mandate.
- Long-term yields may stay elevated due to inflation and debt concerns.
Quote:
"With economic uncertainty elevated and recession concerns resurfacing, consumer behavior will be important to watch. While employment has been concentrated amongst fewer industries, the labor market has shown resilience and strong payroll growth in workers compensation."
The Cost Conundrum: How Medical Utilization Shapes Future Costs
Raji H. Chadarevian
Executive Director—Actuarial Research, NCCI
Key takeaways
- Medical utilization in workers compensation is a function of the following key components:
- The mix of claims and corresponding medical conditions treated,
- The rate of major surgery per medical condition and where the surgery takes place, and
- The intensity of physical therapy.
- One in eight injured workers underwent a major surgery. These claims make up more than half the utilization or cost of workers compensation claims.
- For Accident Years 2016 to 2022, trends reflected more severe medical conditions, offset by a decreased surgery rate and a shift in site of care that moderated the rising medical cost.
- Utilization of physical medicine is up across all medical conditions, with and without major surgery.
Quote:
"Having an additive utilization measure for medical services and commodities allows us to develop trends and produce price indices by state, book of business, and class of claims. The potential is really remarkable!"
Data and Technology: Transforming Claims Management
Damian D. England, ARM
Executive Director—Affiliate Services, NCCI
Panelists included:
Debra Kane
CNA Vice President Workers' Compensation Claims
Neil DeBlock
Vice President—Head of Workers Compensation Claims, Zurich North America
Jill Rosenthal, MD, MPH, MA, FACOEM
SVP and Chief Medical Officer, Zenith Insurance, a Fairfax Financial Company
Key takeaways
- The potential impact that data, technology, and AI may have on claims management and medical management in the future is growing rapidly.
- Technologies that address process efficiencies can play a big part in resource allocation and use of staff time.
- Technologies that assist with claim triage may allow for prompt and appropriate assignments, which helps achieve the “right care at the right time.”
- The speed and quality of data are critical for performing timely analytics.
- Keeping a "Human in the Loop" remains a top priority when using or considering the implementation of technologies and AI.
Quote:
"Advancements in data and technology open up fascinating new possibilities that could impact the workers compensation system. The evolving claims and medical management landscape holds promise for potential positive impacts related to pre-injury planning through post-injury data analysis and return to work."
Driving Risk: Trends in Motor Vehicle Accidents
Brian Stein, FCAS, MAAA
Assistant Actuary, NCCI
Key takeaways
- A motor vehicle accident is over 70% more costly than the average lost-time claim. One reason is that a motor vehicle accident is more than twice as likely as other claims to result in multiple injured body parts.
- While overall frequency continues to decline, motor vehicle accident frequency has not shown improvement, with the exception of a decrease during the pandemic. The ensuing year-to-year change resembles the pre-pandemic trend.
- One bright spot is the trucking industry, which has recently experienced several consecutive declines in motor vehicle accident frequency. Some potential contributing factors include:
- Successful implementation of technology, for example dash cameras.
- Regulations addressing driver fatigue.
- An enhanced focus on overall safety.
Quote:
"Motor vehicle accidents remain an area of concern and opportunity for the industry. While over the last ten years frequency for these uniquely harmful and costly accidents has yet to show improvement, aside from during the pandemic, there is evidence to suggest that recent advances in technology and a focus on safety can get more workers home safely at the end of their day."
If Not Opioids, Then What
Jon Sinclair, FCAS, MAAA
Director and Actuary, NCCI
Key takeaways
- As of 2023, the cost of pain management accounts for about 30% of annual medical cost in workers compensation.
- Despite opioid use in workers compensation declining nearly 75% since 2012, pain management cost per claim has been relatively flat. Changes in pain management have shifted the timing of services to earlier in the life of a claim, driven by:
- Reduced use of opioids
- Increased use of topicals
- Increased utilization of physical therapy
- Increased surgery prices
- These changes have varying impacts on individual claims based on the role each treatment plays for a given medical condition.
- Future changes will depend on how new advancements fit into the pain management framework in workers compensation.
Quote:
"New NCCI research shows that opioid use in workers compensation has declined nearly 75% since 2012. Increasing utilization of physical therapy and non-opioid drugs reveal a shift to a more holistic approach that treats the whole person—not just the pain."
Check out the
AIS Highlights Report for even more information.
About NCCI
With over 100 years of experience, NCCI serves as the nation’s most comprehensive source for workers compensation data, insights, and solutions. As
The Source You Trust, NCCI’s mission is to foster a healthy workers compensation system through its role as a licensed rating, advisory, and statistical organization. NCCI’s thought leaders analyze workplace trends and deliver insights to empower informed decision-making. Its employees are proud to embrace a culture of inclusion, diversity, and respect for one another.
