May 15, 2026 (BOCA RATON, FL)—The industry's most respected thought leaders delivered exclusive workers compensation insights and analysis at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI)
Annual Insights Symposium (AIS) 2026 May 11–13 in Orlando, FL. The
AIS Highlights Report, now available, features session videos and presentations.
NCCI shared updates on current trends across the industry while highlighting how these developments may shape what’s ahead.
"Looking to the horizon is not about predicting the future,” said NCCI President and CEO Tracy Ryan. “It is about knowing what to watch, recognizing meaningful change early, and helping the industry understand what it means."
NCCI’s
State of the Line, a highly anticipated session, provided an exclusive review of the workers compensation system.
"The preliminary reported combined ratio for CY 2025 is 91%—an increase of about 5 points from the prior year,” said Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, Chief Actuary, NCCI. “The change is primarily due to an increase in the loss and underwriting expense ratios."
Here is a recap of insights and quotes from
AIS:
Opening Remarks
Tracy Ryan
President and CEO, NCCI
Key Takeaways
-
The Mix of Jobs Is Changing Across Industries and Occupations
- "Workers compensation follows the work. So as we look ahead, we are paying close attention to where jobs are growing, how work itself is evolving, and how the workforce is changing."
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Health Care Is Being Reshaped by Powerful Structural Forces That Are All Moving at Once
- "The workers compensation medical benefit is central to the promise of our system. But that benefit does not operate in isolation. It is delivered through the broader health care system and changes in that system affect the care workers receive, how quickly they recover, when they return to work, and the overall cost and experience of care."
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AI Is Making Advanced Capabilities More Accessible to More People and More Organizations
- "This is not just another technology trend. This is a significant capability shift. It has the potential to fundamentally change what people and organizations can do."
State of the Line Report
Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA
Chief Actuary, NCCI
Key Takeaways
- Workers compensation net written premium decreased 0.2% in 2025.
- The Calendar Year 2025 combined ratio for workers compensation is 91%, marking 12 consecutive years of underwriting gains.
- Workers compensation’s Accident Year 2025 combined ratio is 102% with prior years continuing to experience downward reserve development.
- NCCI estimates a redundant industry reserve position of $14 billion.
- Lost-time claim frequency declined by 2% in 2025, a slower pace of decline than the long-term average decline.
- Severity grew in 2025 with increases of 4% for both medical claim severity and indemnity claim severity.
Quote
"There's not a single number that defines the workers compensation system. Behind this year's combined ratio of 91, factors such as industry mix, state differences, and carrier variation are all shaping results. As The Source You Trust, NCCI stays vigilant—interrogating the data and questioning outcomes to deliver deeper, actionable insights."
State of the Line Dialogue With NCCI’s Experts
Dan Benzshawel, FCAS, MAAA
Executive Director and Actuary, NCCI
Nadege Bernard, FCAS
Practice Leader and Senior Actuary, NCCI
Dan Cunningham, FCAS, MAAA
Executive Director and Actuary, NCCI
Key Takeaways
- Frequency declines are the main driver behind loss cost decreases.
- The decline in frequency is broad based and heavily influenced by growth in payroll.
- NCCI’s ratemaking process accounts for the data but also reflects analytical insights.
Quotes
Nadege Bernard, FCAS
"While severity has been increasing, it has largely tracked with wage growth."
Dan Benzshawel, FCAS, MAAA
"It starts with the data but doesn’t end with the data."
Dan Cunningham, FCAS, MAAA
"Loss cost decreases are driven by frequency declines. No matter how we slice the data, frequency is going down."
The State of the Economy and Its Impact on WC
Stephen Cooper
Practice Leader and Senior Economist, NCCI
Key Takeaways
- While the economy was resilient in 2025 overall, led by consumer spending, state economic performance was more varied.
- Total employment barely grew in 2025, and growth was concentrated in the Health Care and Social Assistance sector. There have been early signs of the labor market strengthening in 2026.
- Inflation softened in 2025 but remained stubbornly above target.
Quote
"Employment growth on a month-to-month basis has been volatile over the past year, with most growth concentrated in one sector. Overall, however, the labor market remains in balance as both supply and demand have evened out, and there have been early signs of the labor market potentially strengthening in 2026."
Demographic Forces Shaping Workplace Risk
Patrick Coate, PhD
Senior Economist, NCCI
Key Takeaways
- US population growth is slowing, which is constraining labor force growth.
- Workforce aging and other demographic shifts drive significant implications for workers compensation.
- Injury rates are higher—and falling more slowly—for older and younger workers than for those ages 25–44.
Quote
"The US has seen slow population growth, keeping workforce growth constrained. Growth will slow even more in the next decade and the workforce will be older. That is driving significant implications for the workers compensation system."
From Demographics to Claims: Turning Data Into Insights
Paul Hendrick, FCAS
Practice Leader and Senior Actuary, NCCI
Key Takeaways
- The aging workforce presents a unique and growing risk exposure, as older workers experience elevated claim frequency and severity.
- Newly hired workers are a key driver of claim frequency. The prevalence of new-hire claims is closely tied to the strength of the labor market.
- Demographic trends vary substantially by industry.
- Employment growth in the Health Care sector continues to drive higher exposure to both new-hire claims and the aging workforce.
- NCCI is monitoring emerging trends in obesity rates and health insurance access that may have demographically concentrated impacts on the workforce.
Quote
"Demographic forces help to shape the workers compensation claim environment. Factors such as employee tenure or the aging workforce are not abstract economic concepts; they have a real, tangible impact on the nature and frequency of claims that occur every day in the workers compensation system."
Navigating Medical Severity and Claim Outcomes
Raji H. Chadarevian
Executive Director—Actuarial Research, NCCI
Key Takeaways
- Severity is not a single concept; it is the cumulative impact of the injury, the injured worker’s medical conditions, and their treatment over time.
- Demographics and comorbidities—especially age, wage, and health status—drive complexity, duration, and cost.
- Starting care at a nonhospital provider typically means far lower medical utilization.
- Delays in physical therapy or major surgery put upward pressure on medical utilization.
- For claims closed within two years, average time-to-close varies by jurisdiction between 30–50 weeks.
Quote
"The time to close a workers compensation claim shows wide variation across jurisdictions: an additional 9 to 25 weeks after all medical services have been delivered. And that can have a meaningful impact on the cost of the claim."
Connecting Themes That Impact Results Across States
Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA
Chief Actuary, NCCI
Quote
"It’s our responsibility as stewards of a healthy system to be responsive—to share those trends with you, but more importantly incorporate it into loss cost actions as appropriate—like we did in Nevada and what we did in response to Florida’s notable Fee Schedule changes."
Every State Has a Story: CA, NY, and NCCI
Tracy Ryan
President and CEO, NCCI
Andrea Coleman
President and CEO, Workers’ Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California
Jeremy Attie
President and CEO, New York Compensation Insurance Rating Board
Quotes
Tracy Ryan
President and CEO, NCCI
"We may operate in different jurisdictions, but we stay closely connected through the data we collect, the trends we watch, and the stakeholders we serve. I have found tremendous value out of the collaboration we have."
Jeremy Attie
President and CEO, New York Compensation Insurance Rating Board
"As we look ahead, three major shifts stand out: increasing automation that may reduce human involvement, the long-term evolution of remote work beyond its pre-COVID limitations, and the rapid adoption of AI as a driver for industry innovation."
Andrea Coleman
President and CEO, Workers’ Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California
"We remain focused on integrating new data elements into our analytics to better identify emerging trends. That work will be strongest through continued partnership and collaboration across the bureaus and NCCI going forward."
Check out the
AIS Highlights Report for more information.
About NCCI
With over 100 years of experience, NCCI serves as the nation’s most comprehensive source for workers compensation data, insights, and solutions. NCCI's mission is to foster a healthy workers compensation system—our thought leaders analyze workplace trends and deliver insights to empower informed decision-making.