GDP Outlook

Real GDP, Annualized Percent Change and Contributions

Real GDP grew during 2019 Q3 at a 2.1% annualized rate. Although slowed from Q2, consumer spending continues to drive growth. Moody’s forecasts real GDP to increase 2.3% YoY in 2019, slowing to 1.8% YoY in 2020.

GDP Growth Steady, but Slowing in 2020

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); Moody’s Analytics

Employment and Wages

Current Measures of the US Labor Market

Total nonfarm employment rose by 266,000 in November. Job growth has averaged 180,000 per month in 2019 through November, compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018.

Slower Employment Growth Forecast for 2019 and 2020

As of early December, Moody’s forecasts private sector employment to increase 1.7% YoY in 2019, slowing to 1.0% YoY in 2020.

* Average hourly earnings are shown as annualized growth rates for private industry workers. The Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker is the 3-month moving average of median wage growth; this series is wage growth of workers who have been continuously employed.

Employment Growth Is Broadly Based Across Economic Sectors