GDP Outlook

Real GDP, annualized percent change and contributions

Real GDP growth in 2019 Q2 slowed to a 2% annualized rate. Strong consumer spending was offset by reductions in private investment and net exports. Moody’s forecasts real GDP growth of 2.3% for the full year 2019 before slowing to 1.7% in 2020.

GDP Growth Slowing Into 2020

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); Moody’s Analytics

Employment and Wages

Current measures of the US Labor Market

Year-to-date employment growth is slower than in 2018. August nonfarm employment is increased by 25,000 temporary government hires to work on the 2020 Census. Unemployment rates have held steady during 2019.

Employment Is Forecast to Grow More Slowly in 2019 and 2020

Moody’s forecasts private sector employment to increase by 1.7% in 2019 before slowing to 0.8% in 2020.

* Average hourly earnings are shown as annualized growth rates for private industry workers. The Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker is the 3-month moving average of median wage growth; this series is wage growth of workers who have been continuously employed.

Employment Growth Is Broadly Based Across Economic Sectors