NCCI’s Industry Trend Report
July 2025
Introduction
NCCI’s Industry Trend Report allows users to view and analyze countrywide workers compensation results at an industry level, where industries represent NCCI-selected groupings based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
This report includes two different types of frequency and severity results—both adjusted and not adjusted to a common wage level. Each section includes a summary of high-level insights into industry trends.
Note that frequency insights are based on results in excess of wage inflation, and for severity the commentary is based on results without the wage adjustment.
For details regarding the underlying data and methods used, please refer to the appendix.
All Industry Overview
Loss Drivers by Industry
The frequency and severity graphs below show the cumulative changes in lost-time claim frequency and severity. Premium has been adjusted to the latest approved voluntary pure premium level in each state as of April 1, 2025, to make each accident year’s results more comparable to other accident years.
Each industry is shown relative to all industries combined to allow easy comparison, with deeper insights available in each industry’s dedicated section.
While the frequency of claims across all industries has been declining for many years, the extent of the decline varies over time and by industry. Since 2015, Construction claim frequency has been declining by more than all industries combined, while other industries such as Transportation & Warehousing have seen a flatter trend.
Wage-adjusted severity trends measure changes in indemnity, medical, or total claim costs relative to wage growth. Wage-adjusted severity trends greater than zero would generally indicate that benefit costs are outpacing wage growth, while severity trends below zero indicate the opposite may be true.
Total lost-time claim severity has been decreasing for all industries combined. While medical inflation can put upward pressure on medical severity, the rate of wage growth has outpaced medical inflation in recent years.
Please note that frequency and severity are interrelated—an increase in small claims in an industry may increase frequency and decrease severity, all else equal.
Individual Industries
The industries below are ordered by 2023 market share—from largest to smallest.
Construction
The Construction industry has had the fastest rate of decrease in lost-time claim frequency since 2015. Construction’s high premium share is a by-product of the generally higher loss costs/rates charged for the riskier nature of business within the industry.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic varied by industry. Notice that frequency for all industries combined had a steep decline in 2020 with a rebound in 2021, while Construction claim frequency experienced less disruption during that period.
Indemnity severity for Construction claims has been moving in-line with the All-Industry average over the time period shown, however changes in medical severity have been higher than the All-Industry average over this same period.
Manufacturing
The Manufacturing industry has seen considerable decreases in frequency, slightly more than the average across all industries combined.
Both indemnity and medical severity changes for Manufacturing are generally in-line with the All-Industry average.
Combined Office
Historically, Combined Office frequency has been in-line with the All-Industry average. In Accident Year 2020, Combined Office experienced a notable decrease in frequency, as many jobs in Combined Office moved to a remote-work environment.
After a rebound in frequency in 2021, Combined Office has continued to experience decreases in frequency, including the largest decrease of any industry in Accident Year 2023.
Through Accident Year 2020, Combined Office and all industries combined experienced similar average annual changes in indemnity and medical severity. Since then, Combined Office severity has risen faster than the All-Industry average.
Transportation & Warehousing
Transportation & Warehousing frequency has not decreased as much as the average for all industries combined. During the pandemic, Accident Year 2020 frequency declined similar to other industries, however, employment for this sector grew, driven by a surge in online shopping deliveries. In Accident Year 2021, Transportation & Warehousing frequency increased to above the Accident Year 2019 frequency level.
Both indemnity and medical severity dipped in conjunction with the frequency increase observed in Accident Year 2021—suggesting the frequency uptick was a result of an influx of smaller claims—contributing to lower-than-average severity changes over the time period shown.
Retail Trade
Since Accident Year 2015, frequency within Retail Trade has not declined as much as the All-Industry average. Specifically, Retail Trade frequency increased across Accident Years 2017 and 2018 and did not decline as much as all industries combined in Accident Year 2020. However, Retail Trade frequency declined at a faster pace in Accident Years 2022 and 2023.
Severity trends observed within Retail Trade were lower than the All-Industry average through 2021, however, both indemnity and medical severity increased significantly in 2022 and 2023. These increases correspond with decreases in the frequency of smaller claims seen over the same period.
Health Care
Frequency of claims within Health Care has generally tracked closely with the average changes for all industries combined across the period shown. Note that direct claim and loss experience from COVID-19 claims is excluded from this report, which is why the graph above does not show a surge of Health Care claim volume across 2020—2021. When COVID claims are included, Health Care frequency spikes in 2020 and drops back down in 2021. The removal of COVID claims allows for a clearer view of industry trends without the distorting impact of the influx of the generally smaller-than-average COVID claims that are not necessarily predictive of future experience.
Indemnity severity within the Health Care industry has generally outpaced the average changes across all industries combined since 2015. Medical severity has been more moderate and has generally tracked the average changes for all industries combined over the same period.
Note: NCCI’s data does not reflect the large number of self-insured employers within the Health Care industry.
Leisure & Hospitality
The Leisure & Hospitality industry was more heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic than most other industries as it includes such businesses as restaurants, hotels, and amusement parks. Travel and tourism were limited by the pandemic, which resulted in less foot traffic in these types of establishments and led to significant layoffs within the industry.
The greater level of disruption for Leisure & Hospitality translated into a greater-than-average decline in frequency in Accident Year 2020 and a large rebound in Accident Year 2021 as these impacts subsided. In the years following, Leisure & Hospitality frequency trends have declined at a pace similar to the average changes across all industries combined.
Medical severity within Leisure & Hospitality has generally tracked the average changes across all industries combined, however indemnity severity growth has outpaced other industries, in part due to the significant wage growth seen within the Leisure & Hospitality industry in the years following the pandemic.
Wholesale Trade
Frequency trends within Wholesale Trade have generally tracked the average changes across all industries combined, with the exception of 2020—2021. Wholesale Trade frequency did not decrease as much as the All-Industry average in Accident Year 2020 and increased much more than average in 2021.
Severity trends within Wholesale Trade have been lower than the average across all industries combined, although medical severity shows some fluctuations from year to year.
Education
Education is the smallest industry by premium share, accounting for less than 2% of NCCI’s total premium each year. As expected, the smallest industries are subject to a greater degree of volatility as the volume of data underlying the results is smaller.
Frequency within Education was gradually increasing until there was a large drop-off in Accident Year 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted normal school operations and classes moved to a remote environment. Following a rebound in frequency in Accident Year 2021, frequency has continued to tick back up to near Accident Year 2015 levels, but for now remains at a lower level than pre-pandemic.
Indemnity severity trends within Education have generally tracked the average changes across all industries combined. Medical severity has exhibited some volatility but has exhibited a slightly lower trend than the All-Industry average over the period shown.
Note: Includes private education only.
Appendix
Data Download
The underlying data can be downloaded in .csv format using the Data button at the top of the page.
Data Sources
Results included in this report are based on NCCI’s Statistical Plan data for private carriers and state funds in all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services. Large deductible policies are included; underground coal mine policies, F-classification experience, and COVID-19 claims are not included.
The industries shown in this report represent NCCI-selected groupings based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). To summarize NCCI’s Statistical Plan data at the individual industry level, the NAICS codes reported via NCCI’s Policy Data are leveraged and linked at the policy level to facilitate aggregation. NCCI uses NAICS codes in this report instead of NCCI’s industry groups (industry groups used in NCCI’s class ratemaking procedure which represent a mapping of WC classification codes) because NAICS codes categorize individual businesses or policies, which may be more applicable to regular business operations and analyses for users of this report. For example, a policy with a Construction NAICS code reported in the Policy Data would be fully assigned to the Construction industry for this analysis—as opposed to the construction-related class code(s) on the policy mapped to the Construction industry and any clerical exposure such as Class Code 8810 being assigned to Combined Office.
The mapping between NAICS sectors and NCCI’s groupings are detailed in the table below:
| NAICS Code | NAICS Sector Title | Industry Trend Report Mapping |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting | All Other |
| 21 | Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction | All Other |
| 22 | Utilities | All Other |
| 23 | Construction | Construction |
| 31–33 | Manufacturing | Manufacturing |
| 42 | Wholesale Trade | Wholesale Trade |
| 44–45 | Retail Trade | Retail Trade |
| 48–49 | Transportation and Warehousing | Transportation and Warehousing |
| 51 | Information | Combined Office |
| 52 | Finance and Insurance | Combined Office |
| 53 | Real Estate and Rental and Leasing | Combined Office |
| 54 | Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services | Combined Office |
| 55 | Management of Companies and Enterprises | Combined Office |
| 56 | Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services | Combined Office |
| 61 | Educational Services | Education |
| 62 | Health Care and Social Assistance | Health Care |
| 71 | Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation | Leisure and Hospitality |
| 72 | Accommodation and Food Services | Leisure and Hospitality |
| 81 | Other Services (except Public Administration) | All Other |
| 92 | Public Administration | All Other |
Note: NAICS sectors mapped into “All Other” are included in the results for all industries combined but not shown separately.
Method of Calculation
Frequency is measured as reported, undeveloped lost-time claims at a first report per million dollars of earned premium and on-leveled to NCCI-approved pure loss cost level by state. Earned premium is on an “exposure year” basis in that audited payroll (at a first report) for each policy is spread to the appropriate calendar year.
Lost‐time severity is measured as reported cost per case at a first report (undeveloped paid losses and case reserves divided by lost‐time claims). To isolate the medical costs of lost-time claims, medical-only claims and related losses are not included in the calculation of lost-time medical severity.
The frequency and severity results have been calculated with and without an adjustment to account for wage inflation. This wage-adjustment is intended to bring all loss and premium amounts in prior accident years to a common wage level so that results may be viewed and analyzed in excess of wage inflation. The wage-adjustment leverages Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages values from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at a NAICS level for each state included in this report.
Additional Details
The benchmarks for all industries combined include the nine individual industries shown above, all other industries that are not broken out separately in this report, and data reported without a valid NAICS code.
From one accident year to another, results at various grouping levels may be volatile due to small volumes of data. Large claims above a threshold of $25,000,000 have been excluded from this report.
Please note that due to the timing of the reporting of NCCI’s Statistical Plan data, Accident Year 2023 should be considered preliminary for all results shown. As a result, the underlying volume of data (premium, losses, and claims) may be understated compared to prior accident years, which have completed reporting data at a first report. However, because the losses and premium are expressed proportionally to claim volume within the frequency and severity calculations, it remains appropriate to compare the frequency and severity values from year to year in the manner presented.