Intended Use: The calculations presented here model the potential direct impact to expected losses for the associated jurisdiction and workforce under the scenario framework described in NCCI’s Research Briefs: COVID-19 and Workers Compensation: Modeling Potential Impacts, COVID-19 and Workers Compensation: Permanent Disability, and COVID-19 and Workers Compensation: Severity Assumptions Update.
Scenario | |||||||
Frequency Inputs | Assumption | ||||||
(1) | Infection Rate | 3% | Double-click to reset. | ||||
(2) | Report Rate | 5% | |||||
(3) | Hospitalization Rate | 15% | |||||
(4) | Critical Care Rate | 20% | |||||
(a) Permanent Partial Rate | 40% | ||||||
(b) Permanent Total Rate | 3% | ||||||
(5) | Fatal Rate | 0.5% | |||||
(6) | Compensability Rate | 50% | |||||
Scenario | |||||||
Severity and Benefit Inputs | Relativity | Assumption | |||||
(7) | Wage Replacement1 | x | 1.00 | = | |||
(8) | Fatal2 | x | 0.75 | = | |||
(9) | Permanent Partial2 | ||||||
(a) Moderate | x | 0.90 | = | ||||
(b) Severe | x | 1.50 | = | ||||
(10) | Permanent Total2 | x | 0.95 | = | |||
(11) | Medical1 | ||||||
(a) Mild | x | 1.00 | = | ||||
(b) Moderate | x | 1.40 | = | ||||
(c) Severe | x | 2.10 | = | ||||
(i) | (ii) | (iii) | (iv) | (v) | ||
Wage | Permanent | Total | ||||
Scenario Assumptions | Frequency | Replacement | Disability | Medical | Nonfatal | |
(12) | Mild | |||||
(13) | Moderate | |||||
(14) | Severe | |||||
(15) | Overall |
Scenario Impacts | Estimate | |||
(16) | Average Salary3 | |||
(17) | Pure Premium Factor4 | |||
(18) | ||||
(19) | Expected Payroll | M | = (16) x (18) | |
(20) | COVID-19 Total Severity | = (15v) + (5) x (8) | ||
(21) | COVID-19 Expected Losses | M | = (20) x (18) x (15i) x (6) | |
(22) | Expected Losses Without COVID-19 | M | = (19) / 100 x (17) | |
(23) | Scenario Expected Losses With COVID-19 | M | = (21) + (22) | |
(24) | + | = (23) / (22) – 1.0 | ||
(25) | + | = (24) x (22) / (22) for total workforce in jurisdiction |
NOTE: The model scenario may not include consideration for all potential benefit costs such as mental illness or employers liability. Displayed values not shown to full precision. | |
Amounts shown in Rows (16), (18), (19), (21), (22), (23) reflect all private and public employers regardless of how work-related injury costs are funded (e.g., privately insured, self-insured, and employers exempted from WC requirements including Non-Subscribers in Texas) | |
1 | |
2 Base severity values taken from COVID-19 and Workers Compensation: Permanent Disability | |
3 | |
4 | |
THIS INTERACTIVE INFORMATIONAL PAGE AND ANY ANALYSES, ASSUMPTIONS, AND HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIOS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE BEING PROVIDED SOLELY AS A REFERENCE TOOL FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE INTENDED TO PRESENT A MODEL OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO EXPECTED LOSSES FOR THE ASSOCIATED JURISDICTION AND WORKFORCE UNDER THE SCENARIO FRAMEWORK DESCRIBED IN NCCI’S RESEARCH BRIEF. THIS INTERACTIVE INFORMATIONAL PAGE IS PROVIDED “AS IS” AND NCCI SHALL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR ANY ACTIONS TAKEN THROUGH ITS USE. THIS INTERACTIVE INFORMATIONAL PAGE SHALL NOT BE CONSTRUED AS PROVIDING ANY OPINION ABOUT THE COMPENSABILITY OF ANY POTENTIAL CLAIMS OR ANY LOSS COSTS/RATES THAT MAY BE REQUESTED BY NCCI.