Intended Use: The calculations presented here model the potential direct impact to expected losses for the associated jurisdiction and workforce under the scenario framework described in NCCI’s Research Briefs:   COVID-19 and Workers Compensation: Modeling Potential Impacts and COVID-19 and Workers Compensation: Permanent Disability.

    Scenario    
  Frequency Inputs Assumption    
(1) Infection Rate 10% Double-click to reset.
(2) Report Rate 50%  
(3) Hospitalization Rate 10%  
(4) Critical Care Rate 15%  
  (a) Permanent Partial Rate 40%  
  (b) Permanent Total Rate 3%  
(5) Fatal Rate 0.5%  
(6) Compensability Rate 100%  
              Scenario
  Severity and Benefit Inputs     Relativity     Assumption
(7) Wage Replacement1 x 1.00 =
(8) Fatal2 x 0.75 =
(9) Permanent Partial2            
  (a) Moderate x 0.90 =
  (b) Severe x 1.50 =
(10) Permanent Total2 x 0.95 =
(11) Medical1            
  (a) Mild x 1.00 =
  (b) Moderate x 1.00 =
  (c) Severe x 1.00 =
               
 
   
    (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)
      Wage Permanent   Total
  Scenario Assumptions Frequency Replacement Disability Medical Nonfatal
 (12) Mild
(13) Moderate
(14) Severe
(15) Overall
 
 
  Scenario Impacts Estimate    
 (16) Average Salary3    
(17) Pure Premium Factor4    
(18)    
(19) Expected Payroll M = (16) x (18)  
(20) COVID-19 Total Severity = (15v) + (5) x (8)  
(21) COVID-19 Expected Losses M = (20) x (18) x (15i) x (6)  
(22) Expected Losses Without COVID-19 M = (19) / 100 x (17)  
(23) Scenario Expected Losses With COVID-19 M = (21) + (22)  
(24) + = (23) / (22) – 1.0  
NOTE: The model scenario may not include consideration for all potential benefit costs such as mental illness or employers liability. Displayed values not shown to full precision.
Amounts shown in Rows (16), (18), (19), (21), (22), (23) reflect all private and public employers regardless of how work-related injury costs are funded (e.g., privately insured, self-insured, and employers exempted from WC requirements including Non-Subscribers in Texas)
 
1
2 Base severity values taken from COVID-19 and Workers Compensation: Permanent Disability
3
4

THIS INTERACTIVE INFORMATIONAL PAGE AND ANY ANALYSES, ASSUMPTIONS, AND HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIOS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE BEING PROVIDED SOLELY AS A REFERENCE TOOL FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE INTENDED TO PRESENT A MODEL OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO EXPECTED LOSSES FOR THE ASSOCIATED JURISDICTION AND WORKFORCE UNDER THE SCENARIO FRAMEWORK DESCRIBED IN NCCI’S RESEARCH BRIEF. THIS INTERACTIVE INFORMATIONAL PAGE IS PROVIDED “AS IS” AND NCCI SHALL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR ANY ACTIONS TAKEN THROUGH ITS USE. THIS INTERACTIVE INFORMATIONAL PAGE SHALL NOT BE CONSTRUED AS PROVIDING ANY OPINION ABOUT THE COMPENSABILITY OF ANY POTENTIAL CLAIMS OR ANY LOSS COSTS/RATES THAT MAY BE REQUESTED BY NCCI.